Статьи

The paper discusses extreme precipitation recorded at 14 weather stations on the western coast of the Black Sea according to reanalysis data and at two weather stations according to observation data. Comparison of observation data with reanalysis data has been carried out. The relationship between extreme precipitation at each station and elementary circulation mechanisms (ECMs) has been analyzed according to typing by B.L. Dzerdzeevsky, V.M. Kurganskaya and Z.M. Vitvitskaya. The ECMs at which precipitation extremes were observed simultaneously at several stations were identified. It was determined at which ECMs on the western coast of the Black Sea extreme precipitation events occur most often and the multi-year changes in the duration of these ECMs were analysed.

The paper discusses extreme precipitation recorded at 12 meteorological stations on the Eastern Coast of the Black Sea according to reanalysis data and at three stations according to their observations. Comparison of observational data with reanalysis data is carried out. The relationship between extreme precipitations at each station and elementary circulation mechanisms (ECMs) according to typification developed by B.L. Dzerdzeevsky, V.M. Kurganskaya, and Z.M. Vitvitskaya has been analysed. ECMs was revealed, at which precipitation extremes were noted simultaneously at several stations. It has been established at which ECMs on the Eastern coast of the Black Sea extreme precipitation most often occurs, and long-term changes in the duration of these ECMs are analysed.

The objective of this work is to identify the features of the development of a complex system of mankind. The opportunities for the actions of people and humanity are included in the model of the system. Social structures as well as the impact of humanity on the environment are excluded from the model.
This article studies the stability of the model depending on the uncertainty of dates. The impact of the driving force on some properties of humankind’s model is considered.
We examined the lack of direct proportionality between the driving force and the increase in the number of resource groups. We also found a prolonged temporary slowdown in the growth of the number of resource groups.
The index of great creativity of mankind is introduced and calculated. The index dynamics indicated that a period of global slowdown in mankind’s creativity happened between 2000 BC and 1500 AD.
The relationship between the history of creativity and the history of events of mankind was examined.
We found that the move of the great creative activity of mankind from Asia to Europe occurred in the first millennium BC. The model also provided an answer to the question if the development of mankind is a directional and controllable process. It has been established that the development of mankind is aimed at expanding the range of opportunities for human actions. This trend has existed since 42000 BC.
This article has an interdisciplinary nature. It addresses issues related to complex systems and driving force, as well as about creativity and humankind’s history.

The evolution (unfolding) of a number of characteristics in an abstract system of relations is investigated depending on the change in its maximum scale factor, which allows the dependence of the Sun burning on the eccentricity of the Earth orbit to represent using an application. A structural approach is used, which basically excludes the specifics of specific systems. The analysis tool is a protostructure, while the structure is understood as a set of relations, and the protostructure appears as its supposed primary basis. It consists of two components, endowed with cyclic nature, and specifies the spectrum of positions of the order parameter n k , where k is an ordinal number of a node being an allowed state in the selected cycle k = 1 - 10. All normalizations are performed for the k = 3, which is convenient for the application. Earlier, for the node k = 3, we obtained model positions Δ 3 at different stages of evolution, where Δ 3 is the splitting of the position n 3 as a result of its interaction with other n-positions in the system of nodes k = 1-10. To compare the nodes in the named system, scale factors are proposed, of which the largest is selected. It is also shown that as a result of the interaction between the protostructure components, the system boundary n min is formed, on which, on the one hand, the limiting velocity υ max / υ 3, and on the other, the splitting of the position n 3 , Δ 3, depend. The indicated speed is understood as an invariant and corresponds to the speed of light within δ = 1 * 10 -5 %. This paper analyses M / m 3, which is the largest scale factor of the system called the key one; it decreases in the process of evolution and plays the role of a control parameter, on which all other characteristics depend, except for the invariant υ max / υ 3. The following values are suggested for M / m3: a) initial value; b) the value at which the splitting Δ 3 appears, and c) the relationships of the above characteristics. Being based on this, and taking into account the backstory, a disc

The paper discusses extreme precipitation recorded at 23 weather stations in the Crimea. Reanalysis data were used. The relationship between precipitation at each station and elementary circulation mechanisms (ECMs) according to B.L. Dzerdzeevsky, V.M. Kurganskaya, and Z.M. Vitvitskaya has been analysed. The ECMs were revealed, at which precipitation extremes were noted simultaneously at several Crimean stations. It has been established at which ECMs in the Crimea, extreme precipitations most often occur and long-term changes in the duration of these ECMs were analysed.

The objective of this work is to clarify the reasons for the uneven dynamics of the development of the human system. The named dynamics changes in different periods of human history. Opportunities for human’ activities are included in our system model. This model of the human system consists of elements that have not changed since its inception. This means that the elements of the system are invariants. These elements represent opportunities for human action. Social structures as well as the impact of humanity on the environment are excluded from the system model.
In this article, a hypothesis is put forward about a new driving force of mankind’s development. The previously known driving forces are global climate change and the driving forces of biological evolution. We show the correlation between the graph of the new driving force and the curve of the growing number of invariants in our model. The growth of the driving force is very uneven. The emergence of new invariants is the response of the system to the pressure of the driving force. This correlation explains the reason for the uneven dynamics of the development of mankind’s system.
This article is interdisciplinary in nature. It examines issues related to complex systems, geological eras, global climate, mankind’s history.

One of the aspects concerning the evolution (unfolding) of an abstract system of relations is investigated; this makes it possible to reveal its characteristic limiting relative speed and show that it differs little from the speed of light in the application. A structural approach is used, which basically excludes the specifics of specific systems. The analysis tools are the previously proposed protostructure and the order parameter n based on it. The structure is interpreted as a network consisting of nodes being allowed states and their links, which are rules responsible for stability. The structure is understood as a set of relationships, and the protostructure acts as its supposed principium endowed with a cyclic nature and specifying the spectrum of positions for the order parameter n k, where k = 1, 2, 3… 10 is the ordinal number of a node in the cycle 1:10. This mentioned cycle contains, in particular, the nodes n 2 and n 3, while most of the normalizations are performed using k = 3, which is convenient for application. The links between the previously revealed initial boundary of the system of relationships n min and the splitting Δ 3 for the node n 3 are considered; the splitting is also established on the basis of model considerations and corresponds to observations. Initially, the node n 2 is rigidly connected to the boundary n min. In this paper, we analyse the appearance and evolution of the link between the boundary n min and the node n 3 and the downplaying of the initial link with n 2. A search procedure n min is considered depending on the selection of Δ 3,. The positions n min and n 3 differ by about 4 orders of magnitude and are treated as a single system. The analysis is based on offsets of nodes relative to the original position, which allows us to ignore the difference in orders. The evolution process is unfolded as a scenario, or a set of successive steps or structural events, as a result of which a high degree of compatibility of system nodes is realized.
In the appendix, the system und

The structure of a virus and its interaction with cells is considered from the standpoint of systems theory for the first time. The substantiation of attributing the virus to a complex system and a living organism is given. The natural process of interaction between complex systems that are higher in the hierarchy than a virus is carried out through the exchange of information embedded in their code. The general mechanism of interaction between living complex systems is predicted by exchanging the systems that are on a lower hierarchy level. The regularity of changes not only in organisms and cells, but also in viruses during their interactions and mutations is substantiated on the basis of the laws of systems theory.

The paper considers the features of the mutual influence caused by the ice cover of the Arctic waters and the meridional components of the atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere of Earth, which are manifested in the modern period. The identification of such features is an urgent problem of climatology, meteorology, oceanography, as well as the maritime transport industry.
The subject of this research is the statistical relationship between interannual changes in a number of characteristics of the Arctic ice cover and components of the atmospheric circulation. The features of the impact of external factors on them are also investigated.
The paper checks the adequacy of the hypothesis put forward that the significant factors of the interannual variability of the characteristics belonging to Arctic Air Outbreak that occur in the summer season in a number of regions of the Arctic include variations in the state of their ice cover caused by the combined effect of global warming and the decline of the average level of solar activity taking place in the current period.
To achieve this goal, there are considered the results of a retrospective analysis of changes in 1993–2019 concerning average daily values of the average thickness of the ice cover, its concentration, average temperature and salinity of the surface layer of the Arctic water areas, as well as air temperatures and meridional components of wind speed in various layers of the troposphere. The specified information has been obtained from the GLORYS, V12, NCEP / NCAR, and ERA - Interim electronic databases. The method of correlation analysis and statistical goodness-of-fit tests were used to assess the adequacy of the hypothesis under consideration.
Using the example of the Arctic waters located in the European, Siberian, Far Eastern and Pacific sectors of the Northern Hemisphere, the features of the mutual influence of changes in the state of their ice cover and meridional components of the atmospheric circulation in the summer season are revea

For an in-depth understanding of the processes underlying the development of mankind as a whole, an approach is proposed in which the opportunities for actions of people and humanity are included in the consideration. The social structures, as well as the impact of mankind on the environment, are excluded from consideration. In the works known to me, this approach is practically absent. The purpose of this study is to develop criteria for the search for components or groups of components of such a system and identify their list. The other purpose is to consider the dynamics of development over time of a system consisting of these groups of components. The search criteria for components or groups of components that may constitute such a system are described. The list of groups of components is given, which, in particular, includes “Man-made materials”, “Mass transport”, etc. The totality of groups of components determines the range of opportunities for the actions of people and humanity as a whole. An analysis was made of the change in time of the proposed set of groups of components. It has been established that the range of these opportunities expands over time and that this expansion is realized with acceleration.
During the search per proposed criteria information was used from various areas of knowledge. Those areas are associated with the development of technologies, means of communication, social activity, globalization, and cognitive abilities.

There are the main points of the derivation of the differential equations of the Earth’s rotational motion. The periods of oscillation of the Earth’s axis are grounded by the angular momentum theorem. The constants of the equations, the initial conditions, and the theory of their computations are discussed. The results of integrating the equations over time intervals from 0.1 year to 1 million years are considered. The theory of solutions transformation to the mobile plane of the Earth’s orbit is considered for millions of years, and the solution results are presented at different time intervals from 100 years to 20 million years. The evolution of the Earth’s axis is analyzed. It is established that the Earth’s axis precesses with respect to a fixed direction in space, which differs from the direction of the precession of planetary orbits. Physical explanations of the received oscillations of the Earth’s axis from 14.68° to 32.68° are given. The oscillations of the Earth’s rotation period are shown. Evidence of the reliability of the solutions obtained is presented. The work is of interest to a wide range of researchers in the fields of astronomy, paleoclimate and geophysics.

The self-organizing system’s approaching evolutionary maturity is considered, which allows us to explain the characteristics of their orbits for the four planets of the solar system. The system does not possess any specifics of natural objects and is treated as part of a structure that has boundaries. The structure, in its turn, is represented as a set of relations on the numerical axis and is understood as a network of nodes (the allowed states) and relations between them. The system is formed on the basis of the deployment of a proto-structure, a two-component cyclically organized system of relations, which is treated as primary and is intended for a phased study of the evolution of natural systems. Evolution is understood as a deployment from stage to stage, taking into account the background. The proto-structure defines the spectrum of allowed states for n - the order parameter of the system, which subordinates two relative characteristics. As a result of the interaction, the elements of the specified spectrum are split into components and specialize. Here the feed data are the insights resulting from the analysis of the previous evolution stage, where the splitting of ten n-nodes within one isolated proto-structure cycle is considered. We study four n-nodes, which, as a result of detailing, are represented using approximately 50 positions interacting on the numerical axis. These positions are placed at three levels of the hierarchy: the level of positions n, as well as their splits - the level of shifts n relative to the initial positions - the level of small changes. Inter-level connections and the level of shifts are considered in detail, the basis of which are the invariants formed at the previous stage of evolution. An analysis of structural scenarios indicates the key role of shifts at the last stage of evolution.
When applied, each element of the spectrum n is interpreted as the relative moment of momentum in the solar system, when it comes to circular motion. Otherwise, any element of the spectrum is