Статьи

Uncertainties are important factors that influence the decisions made by societies. Economic uncertainties closely affect society’s consumption and investment behaviour. Rising stock markets increase investors’ confidence, resulting in more purchases and higher stock prices and, in this context, an increase in consumer spending. When stock prices decrease, company investments are also negatively affected as consumer spending declines. Thus, increases and decreases in stock prices affect the general economy as they affect business confidence and consumers. The study analyses the effect of uncertainty in economic policies on stock markets, leading to a decrease in investor confidence in the economy. Such effects in G7 countries were examined using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model for the period 1998: M05-2020: M09. This method was able to capture symmetries and asymmetries in the relationship between economic policy uncertainties and the stock markets. The results showed that heightened uncertainty in economic policy in Japan has a significantly negative effect on the stock market index, but in Germany and Italy, it has a significantly positive effect. Rising interest rates have negatively affected the stock market index in the United States, Canada, Japan, Italy, and the United Kingdom. The increase in the industrial production index is positively related to the stock market index in the United States, Canada, Japan, Italy, and France. Additionally, uncertainties in economic policy have asymmetric impacts on the stock market index in the United States, Canada, Japan and Italy, and symmetrical impacts in Germany, France and the United Kingdom.

This study analyses the effects of the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) on the economic growth of its member states based on unbalanced panel datasets. This research was inspired by the ongoing discussions about the development of “free-trade agreements” and the growing anxiety about the US dollar’s stability as a world currency. The latter has recently led to the announcement of the Brazil-Argentina currency union to make bilateral trade easier. As the SACU countries are practically using the South African Rand as a single currency, a growing interest in evaluating the SACU internal trade validity for being the foundation of similar integrative action has started to manifest. The regression results of pooled ordinary least squares (OLS), fixed effects (FE), and random effects (RE) models demonstrate that the economic growth effects of intra-trade (exports, imports) of SACU do not exist. This indicates that further economic integration may not provide positive effects for SACU. However, the most crucial factor to drive the economic growth of SACU turned out to be domestic investment. Attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) also highly contributes to the economic growth of SACU. It is natural and advisable for the member states of SACU to continue the enhancement of investment-conducive environments for domestic and foreign companies. In addition, the long-term fuelling of economic growth with government debt, government spending, and investments points to possible discrepancies in the economic structure of the union, may be connected to internal demand issues. In this sense, it would be reasonable to research the potential of expanding SACU to the countries of the Southern African Development Community (SADC).

Exports play a vital roLe, particularly for developing countries, and economic growth remains a central goal for all nations. Over time, numerous approaches have sought to understand and explain the causal relationship between exports and macroeconomic indicators, with extensive studies conducted on the subject. This research examines the relationship between exports and economic growth using panel data analysis at the provincial level in Turkiye, offering a unique perspective compared to traditional country-level analyses. Given that international trade is often studied at the national or enterprise level, this province-focused approach provides distinctive insights. The study covers the period from 2004 to 2020 and employs the Westerlund ECM Cointegration Test, Panel ARDL, and Dumitrescu & Hurlin Causality Test as analytical methods. The findings reveal both cointegration and bidirectional causality between provincial exports and economic growth. Furthermore, increases in exports positively impact economic growth in both the short and long term. Notably, the effect is more pronounced in provinces with well-developed tourism and industrial sectors.

Evgenii Egorov’s dissertation is devoted to an actual historical problem. The author focuses on Scandinavianism as a complex cultural phenomenon and multilevel political ideology that emerged in the 1840s, flourished in the 1850s — early 1860s and gradually lost influence after the defeat of Denmark in the Second War for Schleswig of 1864.

Статья посвящена рассмотрению Приложения к партитуре одной из оперных пародий австрийского драматурга Иоганна Непомука Нестроя (1801-1862) «Гвоздика и перчатка, или Судьба семейства Максенпфуч» с музыкой Адольфа Мюллера-старшего (1801-1886). Предпринята попытка ответить на типичные вопросы, которые могут возникнуть во время изучения подобных музыкальных документов, относящихся к традиции венского народного театра: для чего предназначалось это приложение, когда оно было создано и кто был его автор.

The subject of this paper is the research into the media sphere of armed conflicts, whose results contribute to the strengthening of the state and law. The aim of the study is to offer the scientific and social public a methodological approach to the research of the media sphere in armed conflicts, based on the scientific analysis of experience from information and propaganda wars of the modern era. The results of this research have strategic importance for the attitude and behavior of states and their institutions in armed conflicts. The main aim of the research into the media sphere of armed conflicts is to generate new scientific ideas and practical social experience, which is necessary to adequately counter the propaganda war, as well as for more efficient strategic and operational management of the conflict by the countries participating in it, through the realization of basic and applied research in this sensitive sphere. Almost all basic analytical and synthetic methods of knowledge were used in the study, while emphasis was placed on analysis, synthesis, abstraction, classification, generalization and the inductive-deductive method. From the corpus of general scientific methods, hypothetical-deductive, statistical and comparative methods were applied in the study. From the group of methods used for collecting data, the method of survey was used, first of all, the technique of a poll, as well as the operational method of document content analysis with qualitative and quantitative analysis techniques. The results of the analyses of armed conflicts that were led at the end of the 20th and the beginning of the 21st century confirmed the initial hypothetical assumption that permanent research of reports in written and electronic media before and during armed conflicts influences the final decision on the outcome of the conflict, and that the results of research after the end of armed conflicts contribute to the strengthening of the state and law. The main result of this study is the realization that without researching the media sphere of armed conflicts, it is not possible to reach new knowledge, axioms, postulates, principles, laws and theories that, in the modern conditions of technical and technological achievements refute the motives and goals of all armed conflicts and prove the futility of conflicts between people, social groups, ethnic and religious communities, nations, sovereign states and military-political alliances.

This paper includes a brief review of the systems for contesting decisions made by the Eurasian Patent Office regarding the issue of Eurasian patents for inventions - systems for administrative annulment of Eurasian patents for inventions and systems for invalidation of Eurasian patents for inventions by competent bodies of the Eurasian Patent Organization member states. Based on the analysis of the two systems conducted by the author, the conclusion is drawn that it is reasonable to create a uniform regional court jurisdiction under which an efficient mechanism will be generated to appeal the decisions about issue or refusal of Eurasian patents approved by the Eurasian Patent Office, the body of the international inter-governmental organization. Also, based on the statistics provided in the paper, the high quality of Eurasian patents for inventions issued by the Eurasian Patent Office as a result of carrying out a patent search across the global patent pool and an expert examination of Eurasian patent applications is summarized. A conclusion can be made about the need for the Eurasian Patent Office to participate in considering disputes associated with protectability of inventions protected based on the Eurasian patents that are contested in member states of the Eurasian Patent Convention. The goal of this participation will be to provide assistance to the patent owners in terms of protecting their interests regarding Eurasian patents for inventions.

The commissioning of the Big Circle Line in Moscow, some sections of which were laid jointly with Chinese underground builders, provided the fi rst experience of interaction with foreign construction contractors on the Moscow Metro. The paper investigates this experience which is of value for the development of such works in the future. The analysis was carried out on the basis of scientifi c and technical documentation on certain facilities, the progress and results of construction and installation works, and information on other events. The paper describes the facilities where construction and installation works were carried out by joint efforts and shows the peculiarities of interaction between Russian and foreign (Chinese) metro builders on a number of sections of the Big Circle Line of the Moscow Metro. The achieved results are demonstrated by the example of individual underground stations. The study reveals the peculiarities of material and technical support of works on the sections constructed by Chinese construction contractors. The mutual exchange of experience, technologies, and work management practices along with the application of various tunnel boring machines from both countries (Russia and the PRC) has yielded fruitful results, demonstrated the possibility and effi ciency of the direct engagement of foreign tunnel builders at Russian sites in close cooperation with their Russian counterparts, and revealed a scheme for rational division of abour, work management, and logistical support of works.

Purpose. Wind speed accuracy in diverse storm systems is crucial for weather prediction, climate studies and marine applications. This study aims to evaluate the performance of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) fifth-generation atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5) for wind speeds in extratropical cyclones (ETCs), polar lows (PLs) and tropical cyclones (TCs), as well as to propose a correction function for potential biases.

Methods and Results. We compared the ERA5 wind speeds with the data from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-2 (AMSR-2) satellite for various storm events. Statistical metrics, including bias, root mean squared error (RMSE) and correlation coefficient (R), were calculated to quantify discrepancies between the two datasets. Based on the observed biases, a simple exponential correction function was proposed to adjust the ERA5 wind speeds. The effectiveness of the correction function was evaluated through visual comparisons and quantitative analyses. The analysis revealed that the ERA5 systematically underestimated wind speeds across large areas within ETCs, PLs and TCs compared to the AMSR-2 observations. The proposed correction function successfully improved the agreement between ERA5 and AMSR-2 wind speeds in ETCs and PLs. However, applying the same function to TCs revealed significant structural discrepancies between the ERA5 and the AMSR-2 wind fields within these systems.

Conclusions. This study demonstrates effectiveness of the proposed correction function in enhancing wind speed accuracy for ETCs and PLs, bringing them closer to AMSR-2 observations. However, further research is necessary to develop approaches for addressing wind speed biases in TCs, considering the unique characteristics and limitations of existing reanalysis data. This research contributes to improving our understanding and representation of wind speeds in diverse storm systems, ultimately aiding in more accurate weather forecasting and climate monitoring.

Роцессы глобализации обостряют ряд проблем социально-экономического развития. В настоящее время все большую актуальность приобретают вопросы, связанные с решением социальных и экологических проблем. Исследование нацелено на анализ результатов экспертного опроса, проведенного на предприятиях города Вологды на предмет соответствия их деятельности ESG-принципам. В ходе работы применялись такие методы, как анализ, синтез, обобщение и сравнение теоретического и фактологического материала, также авторами были использованы методы статистического и сравнительного анализа. Рассмотрены трактовки ESG-факторов, на основе имеющихся исследований отечественных и зарубежных авторов и нормативно-правовой базы определен состав ESG-принципов, выделены ключевые положения концепции социально ответственного инвестирования. Проанализированы результаты экспертного опроса, проведенного исследователями Вологодского научного центра РАН. Выявлены проблемы внедрения ESG-принципов в деятельность предприятий, среди которых финансовые затраты, иные приоритеты развития компаний и отсутствие кадров нужной квалификации. Более половины опрошенных используют вторичное сырье для производства продукции. На абсолютном большинстве предприятий не осуществляется ЭКО-сертификация продукции, отсутствует система экологического менеджмента и не предъявляются экологические требования к подрядчикам и поставщикам. Программы корпоративной благотворительности и волонтерства не распространены среди предприятий города. Мероприятия по продвижению ответственного потребления на рассмотренных предприятиях не проводятся на регулярной основе и носят эпизодический характер. На каждом из предприятий, принявших участие в опросе, осуществляются мероприятия по внутреннему контролю качества продукции. Элементами научной новизны обладают разработка и апробация авторского инструментария, позволяющего определить уровень распространенности ESG-принципов в деятельности организаций. В качестве направления дальнейших исследований рассматривается возможность увеличения числа объектов для анализа за счет территориального расширения проводимого исследования.

Цель исследования - определить возможность применения ESG-принципов в процессе формирования перспектив развития современных российских организаций нефтегазового комплекса с позиций экосистемного подхода. Предмет - инструменты повышения эффективности. В работе использованы методы контент-анализа, синтеза и вербального моделирования. Показано, что ориентация нефтегазового комплекса страны на обеспечение устойчивости социального и корпоративного управления при сохранении экологии окружающей среды способствует повышению эффективности деятельности комплекса в перспективе. В этом случае он приобретет конкурентные преимущества, которые могут оценить инвесторы, организующие привлечение как финансовых и информационных ресурсов, так и людских, материальных и энергетических. Новизна полученных результатов заключается в обосновании подхода, в основе которого лежит сочетание таких категорий, как ESG-принципы, устойчивое развитие, экосистемный подход и стратегическое управление. Результаты исследования доказывают целесообразность применения ESG-принципов в качестве инструментов, обеспечивающих устойчивое развитие современных российских организаций нефтегазового комплекса на базе экосистемного подхода в процессе поиска решений по росту эффективности основной деятельности. Подход способствует формированию специфичной экосистемы, в которой гарантируется эффективность в рамках стратегии ее развития как сети технологически связанных организаций, так и организаций, производящих комплементарные товары и оказывающих инфраструктурные услуги всему нефтегазовому комплексу.

Патогенные нуклеотидные варианты во многих генетических локусах могут вызывать состояния, подобные церебральному параличу. Установление этиологического диагноза имеет важное клиническое значение для оптимального менеджмента заболевания и его лечения.

Представленный семейный случай демонстрирует клинический полиморфизм, ассоциированный с вариантами в гене EBF3, нарушающими регуляцию транскрипции. Описанный нами вариант c.703C>T (p.His235Tyr) в гене EBF3приводит к тяжелым двигательным и интеллектуальным нарушениям, имитирующим церебральный паралич.

Своевременное выявление моногенных заболеваний, скрывающихся под маской церебрального паралича, поможет в ранние сроки установить диагноз и провести медико-генетическое консультирование для профилактики повторных случаев в семье.