HUMANKIND AS A SYSTEM. PART 2 (2020)
The objective of this work is to clarify the reasons for the uneven dynamics of the development of the human system. The named dynamics changes in different periods of human history. Opportunities for human’ activities are included in our system model. This model of the human system consists of elements that have not changed since its inception. This means that the elements of the system are invariants. These elements represent opportunities for human action. Social structures as well as the impact of humanity on the environment are excluded from the system model.
In this article, a hypothesis is put forward about a new driving force of mankind’s development. The previously known driving forces are global climate change and the driving forces of biological evolution. We show the correlation between the graph of the new driving force and the curve of the growing number of invariants in our model. The growth of the driving force is very uneven. The emergence of new invariants is the response of the system to the pressure of the driving force. This correlation explains the reason for the uneven dynamics of the development of mankind’s system.
This article is interdisciplinary in nature. It examines issues related to complex systems, geological eras, global climate, mankind’s history.
Идентификаторы и классификаторы
A quantitative analysis of the complex system of mankind was carried out in [3]. In the above analysis, resource groups were used as elements of the system.
Resources are tools, things, qualities, and methods that can be used to achieve human goals. This article examines resources that have emerged since the beginning of humankinds history. By resources in this work, we mean “unlimited resources” that do not diminish over time and as they are used. For example, the resource "Mass Education" is not depleted by the fact that someone goes to school or college. Analysis [3] shows that in the period from 42,000 BC to 10,500 BC there was a slight linear increase in the number of resource groups. Since 10,500 BC the increase in the number of resources went exponentially at first, and then faster. We use the date of the first emergence of art depicting figures part people, part animals, as the date of the beginning of mankind
s history. This date is 42,000 BC.
Our objective is to find out the reason for the change in the rate of emergence of new resources.
Список литературы
- Mixeev A.N. Invarianty universal’nogo evolyutsionizma [Invariants of universal evolutionism]. Faktory eksperymentalʹnoyi evolyutsiyi orhanizmiv [Factors of experimental evolution of organisms]. 2015. No. 16. P.68-73.
- Panov A.D. Invarianty universal’noy evolyutsii i evolyutsiya v mul’tiverse [Universal evolution invariants and evolution in the multiverse]. Trudy Ob“yedinennogo nauchnogo tsentra problem kosmicheskogo myshleniya [Proceedings of the joint scientific center for problems of space thinking]. 2009. P.132-156.
- Torvich V.V. Humanity as a system. Part 1. Slozhnyye systemy [The complex systems]. 2020. No. 1 (34). P. 74-91. URL: https://thecomplexsystems.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Torvich-V.V.pdf.
- Alberto F.J., Boyer F., Orozco-ter Wengel P., Streeter I., Servin B., Villemereuil P., Benjelloun B., Librado P., Biscarini F., Colli L., Barbato M., Zamani W., Alberti A., Engelen S., Stella A., Joost S., Ajmone-Marsan P., Negrini R., Orlando L., Rezaei H.R., Naderi S., Clarke L., Flicek P., Wincker P., Coissac E., Kijas J., Tosser-Klopp G., Chikhi A., Bruford M.W., Taberlet P. Pompanon F. Convergent genomic signatures of domestication in sheep and goats. Nat Commun. 2018. No. 9. Article number: 813. DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-03206-y.
URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-03206-y (accessed on 30.07.2020). - Almond. Wikipedia Selection for schools. 2007.
URL: https://www.cs.mcgill.ca/~rwest/wikispeedia/wpcd/wp/a/Almond.htm (accessed on 30.07.2020). - Alvarez L.W, Alvarez W., Asaro F., Michel H.V. “Extraterrestrial cause for the Cretaceous–Tertiary extinction”. Science. 1980. No. 208 (4448). P. 1095-1108. DOI: 10.1126/science.208.4448.1095. URL: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/208/4448/1095 (accessed on 30.07.2020).
- Aubert M., Lebe R., Oktaviana A.A. et al. Earliest hunting scene in prehistoric art. Nature. 2019. No. 576 (7787). P. 442-445. DOI: 10.1038/s41586-019-1806-y.
- Austin D.F. The taxonomy, evolution and genetic diversity of sweet potatoes and related wild species in P. Gregory (ed.). Exploration, Maintenance, and Utilization of Sweet Potato Genetic Resources. First Sweet Potato Planning Conference, 1987. 1988. Lima, Peru: International Potato Center. P. 7-60.
- Axworthy N. Price of lab grown meat to plummet from $280000 to $10 per patty by 2021. VegNews. 2019. July 14. URL: https://vegnews.com/2019/7/price-of-lab-grown-meat-to-plummet-from-280000-to-10-per-patty-by-2021 (accessed on 30.07.2020).
- Behrensmeyer A.K. Climate change and human evolution. Science. 2006. No. 311. P. 476-478. DOI: 10.1126/science.1116051.
- Bollongino R., Burger J., Powell A. et al. Modern Taurine Cattle descended from small number of Near-Eastern founders. Molecular Biology and Evolution. 2012. No. 29 (9). P. 2101-2104. DOI: 10.1093/molbev/mss092.
- Caliebe A. et al. Insights into early pig domestication provided by ancient DNA analysis. Sci. Rep. 2017. No. 7. Article number 44550. DOI: 10.1038/srep44550.
URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/srep44550 (accessed on 30.07.2020). - Enrique Cardova, Customer Review: Weak and unconvincing on several points. Amazon. 2014. March 8. URL:
https://www.amazon.com/gp/customer-reviews/R1JOL87LY0SNQ3/ref=cm_cr_arp_d_rvw_ttl?ie=UTF8&ASIN=0465020429 (accessed on 30.07.2020). - Charles Q.C. Humanity’s Oldest Cave Art Shows Shape-Shifting Supernatural Hunters. Live Science. 2019. December 11. URL: https://www.livescience.com/oldest-rock-art-supernatural-beings.html (accessed on 30.07.2020).
- Cochran G., Harpending H. The 10,000 Year Explosion: How Civilization Accelerated Human Evolution, Basic Books. Reprint edition. 2010. October 19. P. 1-304. ISBN 978-0465020423.
- Cornejo O.E., Yee Muh-Ching, Dominguez V., Andrews M., Sockell A., Strandberg E., Livingstone D. III, Stack C., Romero A., Umaharan P., Royaert S., Tawari N.R., Ng P., Gutierrez O., Phillips W., Mockaitis K., Bustamante C.D., Motamayor J.C. Population genomic analyses of the chocolate tree, Theobroma cacao L., provide insights into its domestication process. Communications Biology. 2018. No. 1 (1). DOI: 10.1038/s42003-018-0168-6.
URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s42003-018-0168-6 (accessed on 30.07.2020). - Denham T.P., Haberle S.G., Lentfer C., Fullagar R., Field J., Therin M., Porch N., Winsborough B. Origins of Agriculture at Kuk Swamp in the Highlands of New Guinea. Science. 2003. Vol. 301, Issue 5630. P. 189-193. DOI: 10.1126/science.1085255.
- Jared M. Diamond, Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies, W.W. Norton & Company. Revised ed. edition (July 17, 2005). 83 p. ISBN 978-0393061314.
- Dillehay T.D. et al. Preceramic Adoption of Peanut, Squash, and Cotton in Northern Peru. Science. 2007. Vol. 316, Issue 5833. P. 890-1893. DOI: 10.1126/science.1141395.
- Driving force. Cambridge Dictionary.
URL: https://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/english/driving-force (accessed on 30.07.2020). - Ghose T. The Origins of the Olive Tree Revealed. Live Science. 2013. Feb 06. URL: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-origins-of-the-olive/ (accessed on 30.07.2020).
- Jerome C. Glenn. 15 Global Challenges for the Next Decades in There’s a Future: Visions for a Better World. BBVA. 2012. P. 67-93. ISBN 978-84-15253-72-3. URL: https://www.bbvaopenmind.com/en/articles/15-global-challenges-for-the-next-decades (accessed on 30.07.2020).
- Grinin L, Grinin A, Korotayev A. A quantitative analysis of worldwide long-term technology growth: From 40,000 BCE to the early 22nd century. Technological Forecasting & Social Change. 2020. Vol. 155, article 119955. URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2020.119955 (accessed on 30.07.2020).
- Halliday T.J.D., Goswami A. Eutherian morphological disparity across the end‐Cretaceous mass extinction. Biological Journal of the Linnean Society. 2016. Vol. 118, Issue 1. P. 152-168. URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/bij.12731 (accessed on 30.07.2020).
- Hara Y., Luo S.J., Wikramasinghe R.L., Yamanishi T. Special Issue on Tea. Food Reviews International. 1995. No. 11. P. 371-545.
- Head M.J. IUGS ratifies Holocene subdivision, Subcomission on Quarternary Stratigraphy. 2018. URL: http://quaternary.stratigraphy.org/iugs-ratifies-holocene-subdivision (accessed on 30.07.2020).
- Hirst K.K. The History and Domestication of Cassava. Thought Co. 2019 URL: http://quaternary.stratigraphy.org/iugs-ratifies-holocene-subdivision (accessed on 30.07.2020).
- Historical Estimates of World Population. United States Census Bureau. 1999. URL: https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/international-programs/historical-est-worldpop.html (accessed on 30.07.2020).
- Hutt R. What are the 10 biggest global challenges? World Economic Forum. 2016. 21 Jan. URL: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/what-are-the-10-biggest-global-challenges/ (accessed on 30.07.2020).
- Kayser J., Schreck C.F., Yu Q.Q., Gralka M., Hallatschek O. Emergence of evolutionary driving forces in pattern-forming microbial populations. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2018. No. 373 (1747). Published online 2018 Apr 9. DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2017.0106. URL: https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rstb.2017.0106(accessed on 30.07.2020).
- Korotayev A. The 21st Century Singularity and its Big History Implications: A re-analysis. Journal of Big History. 2018. No. II (3). P. 73-119.
URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.22339/jbh.v2i3.2310 (accessed on 30.07.2020). - Korotayev A., Malkov A., Khaltourina D. Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Compact Macromodels of the World System Growth. Moscow: KomKniga, 2006. P. 5-128. ISBN 5-484-00414-4.
- Lazarević M.P. Elements of mathematical phenomenology of self-organization nonlinear dynamical systems: Synergetics and fractional calculus approach. International Journal of Non-Linear Mechanics. 2015. Vol. 73. P. 31-42.
URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijnonlinmec.2014.11.011 (accessed on 30.07.2020). - List of most valuable crops and livestock products. Wikipedia. URL: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_valuable_crops_and_livestock_products (accessed on 30.07.2020).
- Live Science Staff, Forces of Evolution. Live Science. 2007. August 15. URL: https://www.livescience.com/1796-forces-evolution.html (accessed on 30.07.2020).
- Loudenback T, Jackson A. The 10 most critical problems in the world, according to millennials. Business Insider. 2018. Feb 26. URL: https://www.businessinsider.com.au/world-economic-forum-world-biggest-problems-concerning-millennials-2016-8(accessed on 30.07.2020).
- Maestri N. The Domestication History of Cotton (Gossypium). Thought Co. 2020. Jan 30. URL: https://www.thoughtco.com/domestication-history-of-cotton-gossypium-170429 (accessed on 30.07.2020).
- Meegahakumbura M.K., Wambulwa M.C., Thapa K.K., Li M.M., Möller M., Xu J.C., Yang J.B., Liu B.Y., Ranjitkar S., Liu J., Li D.Z., Gao L.M. Indications for Three Independent Domestication Events for the Tea Plant (Camellia sinensis (L.) O. Kuntze) and New Insights into the Origin of Tea Germplasm in China and India Revealed by Nuclear Microsatellites. PLOS. 2016. May 24. URL: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0155369 (accessed on 30.07.2020).
- Meester L, Stoks R, Brans KI. Genetic adaptation as a biological buffer against climate change: Potential and limitations. Integr Zool. 2018. No. 13 (4) P. 372–391. DOI:10.1111/1749-4877.12298.
- Mehta I. Origin and History of Onions. IOSR Journal Of Humanities And Social Science (IOSR-JHSS). 2017. Vol. 22, Issue 9. Ver. 13. P. 7-10.
- Melissa J.D. A brief history of apple tree. Today I found out. 2014. Feb 11. URL: http://www.todayifoundout.com/index.php/2014/02/brief-history-apple-tree/ (accessed on 30.07.2020).
- Myles S., Boyko A.R., Owens C.L., Brown P.J., Grassi F., Aradhya M.K., Prins B., Reynolds A., Chia J.-M., Ware D., Bustamante C.D., Buckler E.S. Genetic structure and domestication history of the grape. PNAS. 2011. March 1. No. 108 (9). P. 3530-3535. URL: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1009363108 (accessed on 30.07.2020).
- Nargund G. Declining birth rate in Developed Countries: A radical policy re-think is required. Facts, views & vision in ObGyn. 2009. Vol. 1, No. 3. P. 191-193.
- Piperno D.R., Weiss E., Holst I. et al. Processing of wild cereal grains in the upper palaeolithic revealed by starch grain analysis. Nature. 2004. No. 430. P. 670-673.
- Piperno D.R., Ranere A.J., Holst I. et al. Starch grain and phytolith evidence for early ninth millennium B.P. maize from the Central Balsas River Valley, Mexico. PNAS. 2009. No. 106 (13). P. 5019-5024. URL: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0812525106 (accessed on 30.07.2020).
- Roser M., Ritchie H., Ortiz-Ospina E. World Population Growth, revision in May 2019. Our World in Data. URL: https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-growth (accessed on 30.07.2020).
- Smith A.F. Historical Virtues of the Walnut. 2006. URL: http://andrewfsmith.com/wp-content/themes/wooden-mannequin/pdf/WalnutArticle.pdf (accessed on 30.07.2020).
- Smith A.F. The Tomato in America: Early History, Culture, and Cookery. 1994. Univ of South Carolina Pr.; First Edition. P. 1-224. ISBN 978-1-57003-000-0.
- Spooner D.M., McLean K., Ramsay G. et al. A single domestication for potato based on multilocus amplified fragment length polymorphism genotyping. PNAS. 2005. No. 102 (41). P. 14694-14699. URL: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0507400102 (accessed on 30.07.2020).
- Stupar R.M., Specht J.E. Insights from the Soybean (Glycine max and Glycine soja) Genome. Past, Present, and Future. In: Advances in Agronomy. Academic Press Inc. 2013. Vol. 118. P. 177-204. URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-405942-9.00004-9 (accessed on 30.07.2020).
- Sugarcane History and Facts. SugarHistory. 2020.
URL: http://www.sugarhistory.net/sugar-making/sugarcane/ (accessed on 30.07.2020). - The History of Coffee. National Coffee Association. 2018. URL: http://www.ncausa.org/about-coffee/history-of-coffee (accessed on 30.07.2020).
- Ice Age Temperature,
URL: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ice_Age_Temperature.png (accessed on 30.07.2020). This figure was prepared by Robert A. Rohd from publicly available data. - Holocene Temperature Variaations,
URL: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Holocene_Temperature_Variations.png (accessed on 30.07.2020). This figure was prepared by Robert A. Rohd from publicly available data. - Total World Population. Census Bureau, Table 1331. Population and Population Change by Development Status: 1950 to 2050, US Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the United States, 2012. URL: ftp://ftp.census.gov/library/publications/2011/compendia/statab/131ed/tables/12s1329.pdf (accessed on 30.07.2020).
- Sander Van der Leeuw. Complex Systems Theory, Sustainability, and Innovation, Global Institute of Sustainability, Arizona State University’s Julie Ann Wrigley Global. 2016. July 8. URL: https://sustainability.asu.edu/media/wrigley-lecture-series/complex-systems-theory (accessed on 30.07.2020).
- Vellekoop J.; Sluijs A.; Smit J. et al. Rapid short-term cooling following the Chicxulub impact at the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 2014. No. 111 (21). P. 7537-7541. DOI:10.1073/pnas.1319253111.
- Vyshedskiy A. Development of behavioral modernity by hominins around 70,000 years ago was associated with simultaneous acquisition of a novel component of imagination, called prefrontal synthesis, and conversion of a preexisting rich-vocabulary non-recursive communication system to a fully recursive syntactic language. Research Ideas and Outcomes. 2019. April 17. DOI: 10.3897/rio.5.e38546. URL: https://riojournal.com/article/38546/ (accessed on 30.07.2020).
- Warmuth V., Eriksson A., Bower M.A. et al. Reconstructing the origin and spread of horse domestication in the Eurasian steppe. PNAS. 2012. No. 109 (21). P. 8202-8206. URL: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1111122109 (accessed on 30.07.2020).
- Weitzel E.M., Brian F. Codding, Population growth as a driver of initial domestication in Eastern North America. R. Soc. open sci. 2016. Vol. 3, Issue 8. Article ID: 160319. Published: 01 August. URL: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.160319 (accessed on 30.07.2020).
- Bishop-von Wettberg E.J, Warschefsk E. Dissertation research: Evolution and domestication genetics of the mango. NSF. 2015. No. 48.
URL: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1501326 (accessed on 30.07.2020). - Williams B.A. Effects of Climate Change on Primate Evolution in the Cenozoic. Nature Education Knowledge. 2016. No. 7 (1). URL:
https://www.nature.com/scitable/knowledge/library/effects-of-climate-change-on-primate-evolution-141807385/ (accessed on 30.07.2020). - Xiang H., Gao J., Yu B. et al. Early Holocene chicken domestication in northern China. PNAS. 2014. No. 111 (49). P. 17564-17569; first published November 24, 2014. URL: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1411882111 (accessed on 30.07.2020).
- Zuo X., Lu H., Jiang L., Zhang J. Dating rice remains through phytolith carbon-14 study reveals domestication at the beginning of the Holocene. PNAS. 2017. No. 114 (25). P. 6486-6491; first published May 30, 2017. URL: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1704304114 (accessed on 30.07.2020).
Выпуск
The features of the mutual influence caused by the ice cover of the Arctic waters and the meridional components of the atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere of Earth are considered
The structure of a virus and its interaction with cells is considered from the standpoint of systems theory for the first time. The substantiation of attributing the virus to a complex system and a living organism is given.
One of the aspects concerning the evolution (unfolding) of an abstract system of relations is investigated; this makes it possible to reveal its characteristic limiting relative speed and show that it differs little from the speed of light in the application.
The reasons for the uneven dynamics of the development of the human system are shown. A hypothesis is put forward about a new driving force of mankind’s development.
Другие статьи выпуска
One of the aspects concerning the evolution (unfolding) of an abstract system of relations is investigated; this makes it possible to reveal its characteristic limiting relative speed and show that it differs little from the speed of light in the application. A structural approach is used, which basically excludes the specifics of specific systems. The analysis tools are the previously proposed protostructure and the order parameter n based on it. The structure is interpreted as a network consisting of nodes being allowed states and their links, which are rules responsible for stability. The structure is understood as a set of relationships, and the protostructure acts as its supposed principium endowed with a cyclic nature and specifying the spectrum of positions for the order parameter n k, where k = 1, 2, 3… 10 is the ordinal number of a node in the cycle 1:10. This mentioned cycle contains, in particular, the nodes n 2 and n 3, while most of the normalizations are performed using k = 3, which is convenient for application. The links between the previously revealed initial boundary of the system of relationships n min and the splitting Δ 3 for the node n 3 are considered; the splitting is also established on the basis of model considerations and corresponds to observations. Initially, the node n 2 is rigidly connected to the boundary n min. In this paper, we analyse the appearance and evolution of the link between the boundary n min and the node n 3 and the downplaying of the initial link with n 2. A search procedure n min is considered depending on the selection of Δ 3,. The positions n min and n 3 differ by about 4 orders of magnitude and are treated as a single system. The analysis is based on offsets of nodes relative to the original position, which allows us to ignore the difference in orders. The evolution process is unfolded as a scenario, or a set of successive steps or structural events, as a result of which a high degree of compatibility of system nodes is realized.
In the appendix, the system und
The structure of a virus and its interaction with cells is considered from the standpoint of systems theory for the first time. The substantiation of attributing the virus to a complex system and a living organism is given. The natural process of interaction between complex systems that are higher in the hierarchy than a virus is carried out through the exchange of information embedded in their code. The general mechanism of interaction between living complex systems is predicted by exchanging the systems that are on a lower hierarchy level. The regularity of changes not only in organisms and cells, but also in viruses during their interactions and mutations is substantiated on the basis of the laws of systems theory.
The paper considers the features of the mutual influence caused by the ice cover of the Arctic waters and the meridional components of the atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere of Earth, which are manifested in the modern period. The identification of such features is an urgent problem of climatology, meteorology, oceanography, as well as the maritime transport industry.
The subject of this research is the statistical relationship between interannual changes in a number of characteristics of the Arctic ice cover and components of the atmospheric circulation. The features of the impact of external factors on them are also investigated.
The paper checks the adequacy of the hypothesis put forward that the significant factors of the interannual variability of the characteristics belonging to Arctic Air Outbreak that occur in the summer season in a number of regions of the Arctic include variations in the state of their ice cover caused by the combined effect of global warming and the decline of the average level of solar activity taking place in the current period.
To achieve this goal, there are considered the results of a retrospective analysis of changes in 1993–2019 concerning average daily values of the average thickness of the ice cover, its concentration, average temperature and salinity of the surface layer of the Arctic water areas, as well as air temperatures and meridional components of wind speed in various layers of the troposphere. The specified information has been obtained from the GLORYS, V12, NCEP / NCAR, and ERA - Interim electronic databases. The method of correlation analysis and statistical goodness-of-fit tests were used to assess the adequacy of the hypothesis under consideration.
Using the example of the Arctic waters located in the European, Siberian, Far Eastern and Pacific sectors of the Northern Hemisphere, the features of the mutual influence of changes in the state of their ice cover and meridional components of the atmospheric circulation in the summer season are revea
Издательство
- Издательство
- ИФСИ
- Регион
- Россия, Москва
- Почтовый адрес
- 140080, Московская область, г. Лыткарино, ул. Парковая, Д. 1, офис 14/А
- Юр. адрес
- 140080, Московская область, г. Лыткарино, ул. Парковая, Д. 1, офис 14/А
- ФИО
- Старцев Вадим Валерьевич (ГЕНЕРАЛЬНЫЙ ДИРЕКТОР)
- E-mail адрес
- systemology@yandex.ru
- Контактный телефон
- +7 (963) 7123301