RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EXTREME PRECIPITATIONS ON THE WESTERN COAST OF THE BLACK SEA AND MACROCIRCULATION PROCESSES (2020)
The paper discusses extreme precipitation recorded at 14 weather stations on the western coast of the Black Sea according to reanalysis data and at two weather stations according to observation data. Comparison of observation data with reanalysis data has been carried out. The relationship between extreme precipitation at each station and elementary circulation mechanisms (ECMs) has been analyzed according to typing by B.L. Dzerdzeevsky, V.M. Kurganskaya and Z.M. Vitvitskaya. The ECMs at which precipitation extremes were observed simultaneously at several stations were identified. It was determined at which ECMs on the western coast of the Black Sea extreme precipitation events occur most often and the multi-year changes in the duration of these ECMs were analysed.
Идентификаторы и классификаторы
Work on the connection between precipitations and macrocirculation processes according to the typification by B.L. Dzerdzeevsky, V.M. Kurganskaya and Z.M. Vitvitskaya [5] was carried out by S.B. Velev and N.K. Kononova since 1975 [1, 2]. As some of the meteorological stations for which the analysis was originally carried out are closed and data from others cannot be obtained, the work was carried out using data obtained by reanalysis [6]. Comparison of data obtained from observations [3] and reanalysis data from Varna and Burgas stations has shown that there are differences, but they do not prevent identification of the main regularities, although analysis of long-term changes in precipitation and forecast of hazardous phenomena associated with extreme precipitation becomes less accurate. The focus of cyclone formation, from which they bring heavy and catastrophic precipitation to the western shore of the Black Sea, has been identified. The recurrence of extreme precipitation at different stations by year and by cold and warm periods has been established. Based on the analysis of atmospheric circulation fluctuations, it has been suggested that extreme precipitation increases further with a certain decrease in its annual totals.
Список литературы
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Издательство
- Издательство
- ИФСИ
- Регион
- Россия, Москва
- Почтовый адрес
- 140080, Московская область, г. Лыткарино, ул. Парковая, Д. 1, офис 14/А
- Юр. адрес
- 140080, Московская область, г. Лыткарино, ул. Парковая, Д. 1, офис 14/А
- ФИО
- Старцев Вадим Валерьевич (ГЕНЕРАЛЬНЫЙ ДИРЕКТОР)
- E-mail адрес
- systemology@yandex.ru
- Контактный телефон
- +7 (963) 7123301