The author uses the methodological approach developed by U. S. Jevonson and A. K. Chizhevsky. Comparison of average prices for Brent oil and average Wolf numbers during the period of solar activity (1-5 years of the average cycle) allowed to build a model with the approximation certainty factor equal to 1.0 and during the period of 5-12 years of the average solar activity cycle withe approximation certainty factor equal to 0.96. The approximation certainty factor in the diagram of sequential numbers of solar cycles – prices for Bent oil is equal to 0.90. The obtained models allow to predict oil prices both by the sequential number of the year in the solar cycle and by the predicted value of the Wolf number. The predicted value of the world price of Brent oil for 2026 is 56 and for 2027 is 31 dollars per barrel.
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Идентификаторы и классификаторы
- SCI
- Системология
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