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Stabilizing the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to protect the populace from the adverse effects of inflation necessitates appropriate measures at both political and economic governance levels. This study examines the impacts of imports (IM) and exports (EX) on inflation (CPI) in Afghanistan using data from 1990 to 2023. The findings from the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model indicate that both IM and EX significantly impact CPI in the short and long term. A robustness check employing the Kernel-based Regularized Least Squares (KRLS) machine learning technique further validates these results. The analysis confirms that international trade has a substantial and positive effect on CPI. Additionally, in the context of Afghanistan, political instability acts as a positive moderator, amplifying the influence of imports and exports on inflation. The study concludes that the country requires a reevaluation of its policies regarding exchange rates and economic growth to mitigate the negative effects of imports, exports, and political volatility on the stability of the CPI.
Economic landscape of Pakistan is determined by an extremely complex interaction of domestic and global forces; navigating it successfully requires a clear understanding of its character. The paper explores the dynamic relationships between macroeconomic variables and GDP growth in Pakistan using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and other stability tests using time series data from 1980 to 2022. The analysis includes variables representing GDP per capita, inflation, imports, total debt as a percentage of GDP, total population, and forestry and agricultural output. The correlation matrix shows a positive association between GDP growth rate and GDP per capita, total debt service is inversely correlated with total population, and GDP demonstrates a significant negative correlation. The ARDL results indicate that GDP per capita and the agriculture and forestry sectors are significant drivers of economic growth. Over the period in question, inflation only marginally affected GDP growth showing how important it is to maintain price stability through effective policies. Imports provide short-term benefits by enhancing productivity through capital goods and technology inflows but they may pose long-term challenges due to trade imbalances. The influence of population growth appears to be ambivalent: in the short term it contributes to economic growth by increasing labor supply and consumption; in the long term, however, its effect may become detrimental owing to resource constraints. Public debt shows little influence in the short term but negatively impacts growth over time by increasing the fiscal burden of debt servicing. These findings suggest that to achieve long-term economic stability and growth, the country needs targeted policy interventions that should help it control inflation, manage the debt sustainably, optimize imports, and invest in agriculture, which is an important determinant of GDP growth. Future research should concentrate on sector-specific studies and the effects of political stability on economic growth in order to provide deeper insights contributing to Pakistan’s sustainable economic development.