ЭКОНОМИКА РЕГИОНА

The growing economic prominence of BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) has attracted considerable attention to the macroeconomic dynamics driving their development. As these economies grow rapidly and become more integrated into global markets, it becomes increasingly difficult to balance economic growth, trade liberalization, and sustainable fiscal policies. Government size, a key factor in fiscal management, tends to increase with national income (as suggested by Wagner’s Law) and in response to trade openness (as outlined by the Compensation Hypothesis). Understanding these dynamics is crucial due to the unique fiscal pressures and global competitiveness faced by BRICS countries. This study investigates the validity of Wagner’s law and the Compensation Hypothesis in the context of BRICS. Using a panel nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model on annual panel data from 1999 to 2023, our findings confirm Wagner’s law, showing a positive relationship between economic growth and government size. Additionally, the results support the Compensation Hypothesis, indicating that trade openness enhances government size. This study underscores the potential trade-offs between promoting economic growth and trade liberalization, as these strategies may inadvertently expand the government sector and affect fiscal stability. As BRICS economies continue to integrate into global markets, this research contributes to the discussion on Wagner’s law and trade openness, offering new insights into sustainable fiscal policies, government expenditure optimization, and the pursuit of global competitiveness and economic growth within the BRICS framework.

Export development is a priority for the Russian economy, as it plays a crucial role in ensuring sustainable economic growth. In this context, understanding the determinants of regional export development is essential. In their export activities, Russian companies face a range of limiting factors, many of which have been thoroughly examined, with corresponding mitigation strategies incorporated into export plans. However, the role of the global climate agenda and the energy transition in shaping export development remains largely unexplored for Russian regions. The shift of focus to fulfilling environmental goals creates a new type of economic risk for exporters - transitional climate risks, which intensified after February 2022. This study investigates the comprehensive impact of the global energy transition on export flows in Russian regions and identifies region-specific factors that influence how the energy shift affects export levels. The hypothesis is that the global energy transition creates both risks and opportunities for Russian regions, with varying effects depending on the specific components of the energy shift and the socio-economic and environmental characteristics of each region. Using the gravity equation with the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) technique, the study finds that the impact of the global energy transition on Russian regional exports is multidirectional. First, environmental regulations in partner countries reduce exports from many Russian regions by 0.3 %, though regions with favorable socio-economic conditions for innovation and active regional environmental policies see an increase in exports-by 0.3 % and 0.7 %, respectively. Second, the production of alternative energy in partner countries decreases Russian exports by 0.2 %. Finally, exports from mineral-abundant Russian regions benefit from the global energy transition. These findings contribute to the literature on Russian export promotion and offer valuable policy insights for addressing the challenges and opportunities posed by the global energy transition.